Today I had the opportunity to attend the SMART series seminar: Autonomous Vehicles - Driving the Future of the Research Triangle Region.
Speakers:
Event Description:
"North Carolina is leading the way in the development of smart cities and smart transportation technologies. One technology set to take center stage as the cities of the future emerge across our state is autonomous/automated vehicles. The Research Triangle Region is home to organizations making significant strides in all aspects of this technology from research to policy and even deployment.
The Triangle is poised to make significant headway in the development of these technologies as I-540 was recently selected as one of ten nationwide sites to test autonomous/autonomous vehicles.
Autonomous technologies are set to play an important role in transportation around the Triangle as the region continues to grow at one of the fastest rates in the country. Companies within and outside of the region are developing these technologies to address some of the challenges associated with growth (congestion, safety, and emissions) while also working to create new job opportunities in this space.
This is your chance to hear about current developments and future deployments from the influencers in the region."
Event Summary
I’m going to share my interpretation about what was said today from the point of view of a Tesla owner. Keep in mind that my personal opinions may vary from those of the speakers. When released, I will update this post with the link to the event slides so you can interpret them for yourself.
The first thing I'd like to talk about is that the speakers felt that the general adoption of self driving autonomous cars is going to take a long time...much longer than Elon’s vision. The consensus of the speakers was that by 2030-2035 we might have 4-5 million autonomous vehicles on the road. That’s a small number in comparison to the actual number of cars on the road or the 17 million cars produced worldwide each year. Speaker John Hodges-Copple pointed out that there is an adoption curve with cars that is inherently old. One in 5 cars, 20%, is 11 years old or older and 14% of cars are over 20 years old. This trend of long term car ownership will slow EV adoption. Getting people motivated to move to EVs and autonomous cars won’t be easy. Also note that, autonomous driving and the electrification of transportation are synergistic. There can be autonomous gas powered cars just like there can be green cars that aren’t autonomous. Today's speakers did not differentiate EV vs. ICE.
Elon has said that full autonomy is just a couple of years away and that its adoption is going to be controlled solely by regulators. He feels the technology issue is solved. The speakers contradicted that because they seemed to feel that the problem is harder than people realize and needs a lot more work. However, everyone seems to agree on the point of regulation being a problem.
Speaker Missy Cummings felt that Level 4 autonomy, or total self driving in a restricted geofenced environment, was likely to happen sooner than later. She also felt that giving up control in stop-and-go traffic under 25 miles per hour was also likely. These tasks would more easily pass legislation and the technology is more containable. But Elon’s vision of your car being part of a Tesla network and generating revenue for you while you’re not using it is a pipe dream.Even the platooning of trucks is possible but currently not allowed in NC.
There is a Bill in the NC legislature (House 469 Senate 367) that “might” help drive autonomous testing of vehicles and jobs in that area. However, Ms. Cummings wasn’t so sure it was needed or that it would be helpful. Also see this link.
"Under the bill, operators of a driverless car would not be required to have a driver’s license, but a vehicle registration would still be needed. The state’s seat belt requirement would not apply to the vehicle’s driving system, because it is not human. The bill also addresses operator’s and owners’ responsibilities if a self-driving vehicle is involved in a crash. The operator would be responsible for stopping the vehicle and contacting law enforcement, and the vehicle owner would be responsible if that requirement isn’t met – but the owner wouldn’t run the risk of losing their driver’s license."
The U.S. Department of Transportation has chosen North Carolina as one of the testing grounds for self-driving cars."The North Carolina Turnpike Authority, with its world-class facility, partnerships and research, is proud to serve as a designated automated vehicle proving ground," Acting Transportation Secretary Mike Holder said. "We are committed to ensuring the safety of the traveling public and the state's roadways as we test this technology."
"The Triangle Expressway, with its access to three Tier 1 research universities and the largest research park in North America, make it the ideal location for this pilot program," said Turnpike Authority Executive Director Beau Memory. "As safety is our number one priority, we believe this opportunity will allow us to learn how to best keep our customers safe with this emerging technology."
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Maryann and I have driven the Turnpike (I540). It helps us get from Fuquay-Varina to the RTP area much faster. It’s a beautiful new road. 18.2 miles total. I would sum it up as a non-challenging road for self driving vehicles. It's straight and wide open. As Mr. Memory pointed out, it is also equipped with cameras that cover every inch of the highway allowing for detailed testing analysis.
He coined the term CarBot...a mobile robot. His company sees autonomous cars as robots on the road.
While I support Elon’s vision and hope for the success and adoption of autonomous vehicles I am also worried about it taking more than just a couple of years to be adopted. I wonder what the driving future will look like for my stepsons who are 12 and 14. The speakers said that today's kids don't value owning a car and driving quite the same way that I did growing up.
On our Model X, we chose to get AutoPilot but not the full autonomous driving features. It’s not that we don’t think we’ll ever need it or use it, but admittedly we don’t see the need in the next couple of years. We'll add it when the technology is firm and regulations will allow for it's use in our area.
Video
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